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Kasus Corona di Jawa Diprediksi Capai 1 Juta Jika Warga Mudik

Ahli epidemiologi Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat (FKM) UI, Pandu Riono, memprediksi kasus virus corona di Pulau Jawa bisa menembus angka satu juta saat Idul Fitri, jika 20 persen atau sekitar 6,5 juta warga Jabodetabek mudik.
Menurut dia jumlah itu tidak termasuk kasus di wilayah Jabodetabek.
“Secara kumulatif, angka kasus akan bertambah hingga satu juta pada bulan Mei hingga Juni di Pulau Jawa di luar Jabodetabek sebab pemudik akan pulang kampung dan menjadi carrier virus corona,” ujar Pandu kepada CNNIndonesia.com, Jumat (17/4).
Pandu menjelaskan bahwa estimasi kumulatif kasus positif virus corona bisa mencapai 1 juta jika 6,5 juta pemudik itu berada di kampung halaman selama tujuh hari.
“Asumsi estimasi kasus harian berasal dari 20 persen penduduk Jabodetabek mudik ke Jawa selama 7 hari,” katanya.
Andai 6,5 juta warga tidak mudik, berdasarkan pemodelan Pandu, total kasus positif virus corona pada Mei dan Juni di Pulau Jawa selain Jabodetabek bisa mencapai 770 ribu.
Sementara total kasus positif virus corona di Jabodetabek bisa mencapai 240 ribu pada Mei dan Juni mendatang.
Pandu juga membuat pemodelan estimasi penambahan kasus per hari di Pulau Jawa andai 6,5 juta warga Jabodetabek mudik. Kasus berpotensi bertambah hingga 40 ribu per hari.
Sementara kasus di Jabodetabek bisa mencapai 10 ribu per hari lalu turun bertahap.
Kemudian, Jika 6,5 juta warga Jabodetabek tidak mudik, penambahan kasus per hari di Pulau Jawa bisa lebih sedikit, yakni 30 ribu.
Ada selisih 10 ribu dibanding prediksi jika 6,5 juta warga Jabodetabek mudik.
Sejauh ini, pemerintah belum menerbitkan larangan mudik di tengah pandemi virus corona.
Pemerintah pusat sebatas menganjurkan agar masyarakat tidak mudik karena berpotensi menularkan virus corona pada sanak saudara di kampung halaman.
Berdasarkan  data per 17 April 2020, jumlah pasien positif terinfeksi Covid-19 secara kumulatif bertambah menjadi 5.923 kasus.
Dari jumlah tersebut, 607 diantaranya dinyatakan sembuh sementara 520 dinyatakan meninggal dunia.
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